OOC Chat IV

[Zhym]

I dunno. I think Lug is a little jealous that he did most of the work against Nine Tongues but Kennit got the glory of the final blow.

[Keehnelf]

I think Lug's got plenty going on to not be worrying about who gets the credit for Nine Tongues

[KingOfCowards]

Yeah, I guess we just have to be jealous of each other. I'll happily give you all the credit for Nine Tongues if you give me the xp Lug received for ditching his friends

[Zhym]

Everyone does. Or will pretty soon.

[Keehnelf]

Yeah, I guess we just have to be jealous of each other. I'll happily give you all the credit for Nine Tongues if you give me the xp Lug received for ditching his friends

Ouch, I know we've got a forest fire in progress but that's quite the burn nonetheless.

[Zhym]

Touché.

Neither Lug nor Kennit are terribly happy with their lots in life right now. Oddly enough, Orrin and Remus are probably in the best shape of anyone from that expedition.

[Keehnelf]

Orrin's got a bit of cash but I dunno about being in great shape, especially emotionally.

[Zhym]

BTW, what's that armor do to the bugbear's AC? I'm trying to guesstimate the odds in the fight between Kennit and Catstrangler.

[Keehnelf]

His AC is 4 with the armor on. Normally bugbears would get a -2 bonus because they're agile but this setup is clunky enough that it's negated. So he has a very slightly better than standard (by 1) bugbear AC overall.

[Keehnelf]

Also, if it helps: the bugbear's Thac0 is 16, but he gets a +1 to hit, and Kennit gets a -2 AC bonus, which means the bugbear needs a natural roll of 17+ to hit him.

[Zhym]

The 17 matches what I'd estimated. Kennit hits on a 14 or better, with his +1 from strength, if I calculate that right. Shame he couldn't make this a ranged combat.

Looking just at expected damage per round: vs. total HP:
Kennit: Hits 35% of the time for 2-7 damage. That's an expected 1.575/round. Vs. 17 HP (now), that's an expected 10.8 rounds to bring down Catstrangler.

Catstranger: Hits 20% of the time for 2-11 damage; expected damage: 1.3/round. If Kennit is at full HP, would be expected to last 5.4 rounds.

That's not quite odds (I'd need to compare distributions. Might be easier just to simulate the combat in R), but Kennit's definitely the underdog.

Which, duh, I suppose.

[Zorroroaster]

Orrin's got a bit of cash but I dunno about being in great shape, especially emotionally.

Yeah, he's a mess. Although, that might just be what Vaul needs. A berserker dwarf with nothing to lose.

[Keehnelf]

I wanted to do a Dark Knight quote built on that--but maybe Orrin is both what Vaul deserves AND what it needs.

[Zorroroaster]

He's like The Bloody-Nine, only shorter.

[Keehnelf]

How is that series? I wondered about it but never picked em up. Looking for the next read once I finally finish ASoIaF.

[Zhym]

Okay, I got curious and wrote the simulation. I had Kennit and Catstrangler fight each other for my amusement 100,000 times. Each started at full strength. Here's the breakdown of victories:

Kennit: 13,250 (13.25%)
Catstrangler: 86,453 (86.453%)
Both fall: 297 (0.297%)

That's actually a better than I expected for Kennit.

[Zorroroaster]

I'm almost done the third book. I am enjoying it - it's really morally ambiguous, he's got a knack for creating characters that start off feeling like cutouts and just get deeper and more interesting as they go.

I was sceptical when I started, the prose seemed weak at first but as I kept reading it's almost like he found his groove and got better as you read. He has some really epic story arcs but doesn't big you down in thousands of secondary characters (ahem, GRRM) and intrigue that goes nowhere.

It's good.

I was looking for something similar to Richard Morgan's Ringil Eskiath and this is where I ended up.

[Keehnelf]

You know, I haven't been annoyed by the size of GRRM's cast until book 4, where theoretically you're on the downward arc of the story but he's still introducing new characters like he's in book one. Now, he has a knack for creating characters you can quickly grow to like, but this is still an issue complexity-wise.

[Zorroroaster]

Yeah, I felt the same. I had to put it down as life was taking over at that point, and then when I went to pick it up again it felt like work just getting my head around all the threads again.

The only element in The First Law series that's odd for me is that one of the forces arrayed against the protagonists is too obviously patterned on the Crusader/Infidel archetype. Dark skinned warriors from the hot desert lands that want all to submit to their one angry God, yadda yadda. I found it lazy. Otherwise, good reading. (Don't worry, that's hardly a spoiler. They are more a background element rather than the real antagonists.)

[Keehnelf]

Okay, I got curious and wrote the simulation. I had Kennit and Catstrangler fight each other for my amusement 100,000 times. Each started at full strength. Here's the breakdown of victories:

Kennit: 13,250 (13.25%)
Catstrangler: 86,453 (86.453%)
Both fall: 297 (0.297%)

That's actually a better than I expected for Kennit.

Those are slightly worse odds than I expected, given how hard it was for Catstrangler to hit Kennit, but I knew that it would basically take one hit to end the fight (on average he'd do 6.5 points of damage which is about what Kennit could take). If only he had been able to make it to level 2 first